Between early 2009 and now, the Office of the Actuaries at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has lowered its forecast of medical spending in 2016 by 1 percentage point of GDP. In dollar terms, this is $2,500 for a family of four.Unfortunately for Cutler and his reputation, the Office of the Actuaries at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services outlined the sources of the change in its projections, and Obamacare was decidedly not one of them. Charles Blahaus has a detailed analysis, which includes a summary of the sources of the changes in health spending projections:
1) Medicare/Medicaid/other programs “unrelated to the ACA” (50.7% of improvement).
2) Other factors “unrelated to the ACA” (26.1%).
3) Updated data on historical spending growth (21.8%).
4) Updated macroeconomic assumptions (6.1%).