Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Our best hope: A Damascene conversion

The Federal budget is probably in much worse shape than is indicated by Administration projections. As Greg Mankiw points out, the Administration's latest growth projections are well above those of private forecasters. Given the economic incompetence of the Administration, I'm fairly confident which set of projections is more likely.

Then again, maybe the President knows something we don't and the projections are embedded with the assumption that we won't have to suffer from his opposite-of-what-should-be-done policies for much longer. Maybe he's predicting his own electoral defeat, or that he will have a Saul-to-Paul conversion that will make him stop persecuting businesses and their employees. Other than wishful thinking, I can't think of any other explanations for the optimistic growth projections.