Sunday, July 22, 2012

I think he has it backwards

The Washington Post has an analysis by Chris Cizzilla of the economies of presidential-election swing states. According to Cizzilla, the improving economies of those states, at least relative to the awful national economy, will make them more likely to end up in President Obama's column:
In seven of those 12 states — Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — the unemployment rate is below the June national average of 8.2 percent. In some, it is considerably less than the national average; the June rates in New Hampshire, Iowa and Virginia were below 6 percent. Even in Ohio, a state hit hard by the collapse of the manufacturing sector, the unemployment rate is a full percentage point below the U.S. average. Republicans note that the unemployment rate rose between May and June in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia, among other swing states.
In the four swing states where the rate is above the national average — Florida, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina — the trend line is headed downward. Nevada’s June unemployment rate was an eye-popping 11.6 percent, but that was down from 13.8 percent in June 2011. Ditto Florida (10.7 percent in June 2011, 8.6 percent now), Michigan (10.6 percent in 2011, 8.6 percent now) and North Carolina (10.6 percent in 2011, 9.4 percent now).
The problem with this analysis is that almost all of these states either began succeeding economically only after they swung Republican in their statehouses in 2011 (Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, New Mexico, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania) or is poised to elect a Republican governor to replace its current, wildly unpopular Democratic governor (North Carolina).  Even if the Republican governors are not responsible for their states' good fortunes, I bet they'll be able to take credit, especially since their electorates just replaced Democrats.

I'm no expert when it comes to politics, but that looks like good news for Romney rather than Obama.